The Fed came and went like a whisper no one heard. They confirmed low-rates and a commitment to higher inflation leading to a muted market response. It’s almost like we knew what they were going to say…

Back on planet Earth, the rest of us were trading the markets in front of us. Stocks took a face plant into the close as investors shrugged off the Fed’s support.

The markets sit at a key inflection point. Let’s take a look at areas you need to pay attention to, and where you can make some healthy green.

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THE WINNING STRATEGY THAT WALL STREET HAS BEEN HIDING FROM EVERYONE…

FULL DETAILS HERE

Key Stocks I’m Trading Right Now

Every day, I update my list of stocks that I’m watching for setups. While I normally reserve this for paid members, I’ll give you a look at what I’ve got my eye on.

Expected earnings dates listed in (…)

Stocks I want to bet against…

NFLX (April 21), AMZN (Jan 30), AAPL (Jan 28), FB (Jan 29), CRM (Mar 2), AMD (Jan 28), HUBS (Feb 12), TWLO (Feb 5), NOW (Jan 29), SPCE (Feb 25), TLT (none)

Stocks I want to buy..

CMG (Feb 4), DIS (Feb 4), MJ (none), CVNA (Feb 26), PLNT (Jan 29), UVXY (none), STZ (April 2), UNG (none), TSN (Feb 6), BYND (Jan 27), XLE (none), WMT (Feb 18), BA (Jan 29), WDAY (Feb 27), LK (??), PTON (Feb 5), KL (Feb 20), BUD (Feb 27), BKNG (Feb 26), HON (Jan 31), WORK (Mar 4), TTD (Feb 20)

Amazon already paid me well over $40,000 in the past month. I’m already in trades with AAPL, FB, WDAY…well let’s just say I’ve got a few on the books…most of which are at a profit.

One of The Best Days To Trade

The day after the Fed is one of my favorite days to put on new trades. That’s why I’m hosting a live event today. Best of all, I’ll be trading for the whole world to see. Find out how to apply all the techniques and skills to real trades.

You can watch by clicking this link.

This is going to be awesome. Not only does the timing line up here, but with yesterday’s close, the markets display a lot of volatility. That creates plenty of opportunities for some juicy trades if you know where to look.

Earnings Deluge

You might have noticed that I’ve got a lot of plays that go through earnings. We’re seeing a lot of stocks trade inside the expected move priced by the options.

The question remains whether the Coronavirus takes a huge chunk out of the Chinese economy. Estimates already suggest shaving off 2% from the already paltry 6% GDP.

That’s what made Apple’s earnings remarkable given their supply chain in China. It’s also why I sold a call spread on the company this week that’s already looking to be a nice trade.

The Strength of Gold

Gold continues to show a ton of strength and is one of the markets I’m pretty bullish on. With equities primed to stall out and uncertainty creeping back in, gold benefits as the defacto ‘safety trade.’

This is what I’m holding after I already took some sick profits

Even if the precious metal pulled back to the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart, it would still be bullish. That’s why I’m taking dips as opportunities to load up.

GLD Hourly Chart

Possible Bottom In Energy

Crude oil, and especially natural gas, have been searching for a bottom for quite some time now. If natural gas gets much cheaper, they’ll be giving it out with packs of baseball cards.

The record production within the U.S. could be slowing as rig counts continue to decline.

The bottom in rigs in 2016 led to a decent rally in energy stocks through the remainder of the year, as well as the commodities themselves. While we probably have a but more to go given the stockpiles, we also have much higher global demand than we did then.

High Profits

I have to admit that I really like the cannabis industry at the moment. Times continue to change, with many states now legalizing medical marijuana if not recreational use. We’re already seeing presidential candidates talk about the issue, which could bring about change as soon as next year.

In particular, I like the ETF MJ that invests in the sector. It’s got a great risk/reward here as it’s very close to its all-time lows. Plus, it yields over 7% (though that’s likely unsustainable).

MJ Daily Chart

Check out the recent pop that broke the sustained downtrend. With a nice retracement, this ETF looks prime for the picking. This is one of those trades that could pay out for months to come.

You And The Captain Can Make It Happen

The party boat sets sail today. Join me for this special event. All the techniques and tricks will be on display. Watch me trade live!

Click here to join this live event…

Yesterday may have been a rough day for some traders, as the S&P 500 declined by 52 points, -1.58%, on fears that the coronavirus could weigh down the global economy.

But it didn’t have to be. In fact, I actually made over $24,389 from trading options.

And while yesterday was the first volatile trading day of the year. I am ready for anything… whether it’s a bounce or continued sell-off.

I’ll be alerting Total Alpha subscribers on my game plan and trades throughout the day.

While the market tries to figure itself out, I want to take this time to talk to about an options trade I had on Amazon a few days ago.

But this time, we won’t be talking about options at all.

Instead, I want to discuss something called the Life Cycles of a Stock.

Study it, and you’ll be on your way to adding more 0’s to your bank account.

Breaking Down The AMZN Trade

Iron condors combine a put credit spread and a call credit spread. This creates the ‘wings’ of the trade.

Here’s a quick example.

• Stock ABC trades at $100
• You sell the $110 call contract and buy the $115 call contract
• Then you sell the $90 put contract and buy the $85 put contract.
• You will receive a credit for this transaction

The goal is to get the stock to land between the closest strikes at expiration, in this case, $90 and $110.

Now, I bring this up because I want to explain a little trick here. You don’t have to execute this trade all at once. Instead, it’s perfectly acceptable to start with a call credit spread and then add the put credit spread later on or visa versa.

You’re probably asking – why would I do this?

Well, the closer you are to the strikes, the more you get paid for that portion of the trade. If you have a range bound stock, you can start with one side of the trade, and add the other one when it gets closer to the other end.

Let’s use the Amazon trade as an example. The hourly chart highlights an area where the stock traded in a narrow range for the last month.

AMZN Hourly Chart

Imagine you were just trading the stock. If you saw a stock stuck in the range, you would sell at the highs and buy at the lows.

That’s basically what we’re doing here but with credit spreads. When Amazon made its first drive higher up to $1900, I took that opportunity to sell a call credit spread. That paid me a good chunk of change since I was so close to the strikes.

When the stock dropped down to $1832, I sold the put credit spread. After that, I simply waited the trade out.

Because I used the swings in price to get fatter payouts on the credit spreads, I not only reduced my overall risk but increased my earnings. This is how you combine timing and chart analysis with credit spreads.

But the real secret is leveraging a stock’s life cycle.

Using Life Cycle Analysis

I recently did a live event where I explained the three stages of a stock’s life cycle. These are the churns it goes through as it wiggles its way higher.

First, stocks go through a reversal. This doesn’t break the longer-term trend. Instead, it creates a short-term turn. I use these to time when I sell the put or call spreads at the tops and bottoms of the ranges. You can actually see this in action on the AMZN chart in mid-January. The crossover of the 13-period moving average below the 30-period moving average signaled a reversal move lower.

AMZN Hourly Chart

Second, we have the reset areas. After a significant run, stocks like to pull back below their 200-period moving average. These make great places to sell put spreads underneath to eat up the clock. You can see that type of move from November through December in AMZN.

AMZN Hourly Chart

Lastly, there’s the launchpad. This happens when that same stock breaks out above the 200-period moving average and gets ready to take off. This shows up on the AMZN chart in late December.

AMZN Hourly Chart

Knowing these three phases to the stock’s movement is essential for timing your trades.

You can check out some more examples of the lifecycle in my video replay.

Click here to watch.

Hold on to your knickers cause the markets are about to take us for a wild ride. With futures pointed to a massive decline at the open, we need to look at what’s in store for the indexes

The Federal Reserve delivers its first announcement of the year on Wednesday. Hamstrung by a fragile market and jawboning politicians, they’re widely expected to leave rates unchanged. The open question – will they soothe scared investors?

Jerome Powell already upended economists by allowing for U.S. inflation to rise above its 2% mandate – a statement that probably has Adam Smith turning in his grave.

Interestingly, we’ve managed to stay below historical levels, with the one exception being the period from the late ‘50s to the late ‘60s.

This leads me into the bond market as our first stop this week…a place that could rise further than we’ve seen already.

Bright Bond Outlook

Normally, I stick with the hourly chart when I look for setups that fit my money-pattern. However, the weekly chart for the bond market looks fascinating.

TLT Weekly Chart

Last week the bond market closed above the upper trendline that connected the high points of the candles since August. That signals bonds want to break higher out of this consolidation range.

Supported by an easy Fed, bond demand remains strong. With zero and negative interest rates around the globe, it’s an easy choice for investors. Plus, when the market finally pulls back, its inverse relationship with bonds will give it an extra push.

Markets Fired a Warning Shot

Friday’s close was different than the ones we’ve seen over the last month or so. Stocks traded weakly all day, closing in poor fashion.

SPY Hourly Chart

I first noticed the bearish money pattern crossover Friday where the 13-period moving average crossed below the 30-period moving average. Then, the market proceeded to fill the gap, and not only close at that level, but below the past couple of days. This is known as an ‘engulfing’ candle. When it happens like this at highs, it’s a bearish reversal.

The Nasdaq didn’t look as bad. But, it’s dangerously close to making a bearish crossover as well.

QQQ Hourly Chart

Now you may ask, why would this bearish crossover be any different than the light pullback we got at the end of December?

The difference is how it occurred. December’s ranged didn’t extend as far as this decline in a single day. The entire move in December was 1% from top to bottom over two days. Friday’s was 1.55% in a single day.

But let’s look at the other evidence out there.

A Significant Rise In The VIX

Back in December, the VIX hardly budged as the market rolled over. Compare that with what Friday’s move looked like in the VIX.

VIX Daily Chart

The strength behind this move was more powerful than December’s. The only saving grace was that it didn’t close above the 200-period daily moving average Friday. But I think that is only a matter of time.

Another point in favor of this decline comes from the VVIX. The VVIX, which measures demand on the VIX, actually declined on the rise in the VIX at the end of December. Friday the VVIX climbed alongside the VIX as markets fell.

VVIX Daily Chart

This is more indicative of a sustainable pullback. It would make sense given how in 2018, markets ran straight up for a month before pulling back. We’re pretty close to that timing now.

Gold Looks Glorious

I added call options in the GLD last week to my Total Alpha portfolio. Gold’s chart depicts a bullish market ready to break higher.

When I look at the hourly GLD chart, I see a bullish crossover as well as a consolidation pattern near the upper end of the trading range.

GLD Hourly Chart

GLD came close to touching the hold highs Friday. The longer it hovers here, the more likely it breaks through to much higher levels. A downdraft in the markets would certainly help this along.

Crude Looking For a Bottom

I’ll admit I’m surprised at how far crude has fallen. However, that aligns with why I would expect a pullback in stocks.

At this point, crude oil will want to test its previous lows. In the USO that coincides with $10.50-$11.00. Breaking those levels would require a lot more selling pressure than we’ve seen so far.

USO Daily Chart

Part of why I’m looking for a bottom in crude oil is its volatility. Like the S&P 500, crude oil has its own volatility measure. Right now the OVIX is at pretty high levels.

OVIX Daily Chart

That’s not to say that oil volatility is at record levels. Rather, it’s at relatively high levels. So it certainly can go lower. But, the OVIX is mean-reverting and is overextended in the short-term.

Betting Against China

Before the Coronavirus hit the wires, I already had an option bet against Chinese stocks. This paid me over 100%, and I still have part of the position.

You can learn how the same secrets to find trades like this.

Click here to learn more.

Source: TotalAlphaTrading.com | Original Link