Stocks closed the week in the red, as all major stock indices closed lower. Small cap stocks were hurt the worst, as the Russell 2000 index fell by 2.4%
U.S. and China trade talk headlines is what is moving stocks. That said, if you’re looking for an indication on how stock futures will open tomorrow, then you’ll want to follow President Trump’s twitter account because he’s one of the main drivers in this market at the moment.
And you know what?
With earnings season dying down we should expect to see this market volatility stick around… probably until June’s G20 meeting…
As for me, I’m going to stick with what’s been working… and that’s keeping a balanced portfolio … as well as… taking what the market is giving me…
For example:
Day trading spy puts yesterday during a live training to Weekly Money Multiplier clients:
(WMM clients don’t only get my real-time alerts and live portfolio feed, but they also receive free training on ways to improve their options trading…so they can knock down trades like this one… if you’d like to get started with us, click here.)
Also, trading large-cap moment names like recent IPO superstar, Beyond Meat (BYND):
(When you’re trading high flying stocks knowing when to exit is just as important as when to enter, if you’d like my full trading plan each day, along with my real-time alerts and education library, click here to get started.)
My advice to traders in this market hasn’t changed…
- Keep your attack balanced (a combination of longs and shorts)
- Be quicker to take profits
- Size your trades smaller to account for the increased market volatility
That said, it should be another fun week of trading, to get you ready I put together the Jump… Read on for the upcoming calendar of earnings (Home Depot, and retailers (TJ Maxx, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, VFC – the makers of Vans, and Target), IPOs, and economic events. As well as, my current thoughts on the SPY and some trade ideas.
Your Jump on the Week – Macros and Technical Levels
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) snapped its three-day winning streak, and ended the week down 0.80%. Now that corporate earnings are slowing down… we’re shifting our focus back to the macro view.
For the most part, I’ve been avoiding these swings in the market… and focusing on specific stocks. For example, Beyond Meat (BYND) has been a hot initial public offering (IPO)… and it’s just been on a tear.
Thanks to Kyle Dennis, I bought BYND call options the other day… and locked in a $4K winner within a short timeframe.
Now, had I traded the stock, I would’ve needed nearly 2,000 shares (a capital outlay of over $175K) just to make $4K… however, through the power of options… I was able to use much less than that and generate profits faster.
Now, if you need a refresher on options trading, how options work, and what you need to know to consistently generate 100%+ winners… make sure to check out my eBook 30 Days to Options Trading.
Getting back.
What’s Going on in the Markets
It seems like the market is respecting technical levels, and focused on what’s next in the U.S – China trade deal.
Now, China noted it was going to raise the existing 5-10% floating range for tariffs on $60B worth of U.S. goods to 5-25%, effective June 1. That said, China isn’t backing down from these talks and is retaliating to the U.S. tariff rate hike on $200B of imported Chinese Goods.
No deals were made, and no meetings are officially scheduled… so the market has been on edge.
What we did learn about macroeconomics was the fact that both China and U.S. reported weaker-than-expected retail sales and industrial production… and the takeaway here is that consumers haven’t been buying more, and the global economy is starting to slowly contract.
With these new data points, the Fed officials will still probably stick with their wait-and-see approach… consequently, the Treasury market has been relatively stagnant. Yields are continuing to pull in due to traders buying up treasury bonds to hedge their stock portfolios… as well as traders expecting the Fed will ultimately cut rates before the end of the year.
That said, bonds have been rising… and it’s been benefiting the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). I actually keep a portfolio of trades that should go up if the market goes up… and bets that will go up if the market goes down. In other words, I’m keeping a balanced portfolio.
(If you want to live stream my portfolio and see me make trades in real time, click here to get started.)
Here was a snapshot of was my options in TLT were doing earlier last week (the options were deep in the money and have expired in the money). That said, I’ll be actively watching TLT and looking for areas to get into the bond-tracking exchange-traded fund (ETF) again.
Technical Watch
Now, SPY has been trading in a wide range… and it’s been trying to break above the $289 level. Here’s a look at the chart I’m watching in SPY right now.
Notice how the last three times SPY tried to break above $289 (the blue horizontal line), which happens to be right around the 200-hourly simple moving average (SMA) – the green line – it’s failed.
That said, that’s a key level we’ll be watching in the SPY.
Not only that, we’re going to be watching for the money pattern.
Last week, we saw the market rebound from just below the $280 level, something we’ve been watching in Weekly Money Multiplier.
However, if you look at the blue and red lines right now… it looks like the blue line could turn lower and cross below the red line. However, with the ongoing trade news headlines… I’m going to wait and see what the technicals tell me in SPY before I make any moves.
That said I’m going to be focused on the $289 level and $280 level right now.
Moving on.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be releasing its meeting minutes from April… and we’ll be focused on that, as well as some other economic indicators and a few corporate earnings. That said, let’s take a look at what’s on tap next week.
Economic Calendar and Other Key Events
Monday, May 20, 2019
- 8:30 AM EST Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for April
Other Key Events
- RECon 2019 – Int’l Council of Shopping Centers, 5/19-5/22, in Las Vegas
- UBS Global Healthcare Conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- UBS Global Oil and Gas conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- Japan Q1 GDP
- Japan industrial production for March
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
- 7:45 AM EST ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55 AM EST Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 10:00 AM EST Existing Home Sales MoM for April
- 4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data
Other Key Events
- AGA Financial Forum 2019 Conference, 5/21-5/23, in Fort Lauderdale, FL
- RECon 2019 – Int’l Council of Shopping Centers, 5/19-5/22, in Las Vegas
- UBS Global Healthcare Conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- UBS Global Oil and Gas conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- RBC Capital Healthcare Conference, 5/21-5/22, in New York
- OECD economic outlook
- Eurozone consumer confidence for May
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
- 7:00 AM EST MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 10:30 AM EST Weekly DOE Inventory Data
- 2:00 PM EST FOMC Meeting Minutes
Other Key Events
- AGA Financial Forum 2019 Conference, 5/21-5/23, in Fort Lauderdale, FL
- RECon 2019 – Int’l Council of Shopping Centers, 5/19-5/22, in Las Vegas
- UBS Global Healthcare Conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- UBS Global Oil and Gas conference, 5/20-5/22, in New York
- RBC Capital Healthcare Conference, 5/21-5/22, in New York
- Japan import/exports for April
Thursday, May 23, 2019
- 8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims
- 9:45 AM EST Markit US Manufacturing PMI, May-P
- 9:45 AM EST Markit US Services PMI, May-P
- 9:45 AM EST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
- 10:00 AM EST New Home Sales for April
- 10:30 AM EST Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM EST Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for May
Other Key Events
- AGA Financial Forum 2019 Conference, 5/21-5/23, in Fort Lauderdale, FL
- Eurozone flash PMIs for May
Friday, May 24, 2019
- 8:30 AM EST Durable Goods Orders, Apr-P
- 8:30 AM EST Durable Goods Ex; Transportation
- 1:00 PM EST Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count
Before we get into the earnings calendar, here’s a look at the upcoming initial public offerings (IPOs)
Expected IPOs for the week
- Bicycle Therapeutics (BCYC) – $14-$16 price range on 4.333M shares
- Ideaya Biosciences (IDYA) – $13-$15 price range on 5.0M shares
- Pelaton Therapeutics Inc. (PLTX) – $15-$17 price range on 9.375M shares
- Rattler Midstream LP (RTLR) – $16-$19 price range on 33.333M shares
Earnings Calendar
Monday, May 20, 2019
Earnings Before Open
- Tata Motors Ltd. (TTM) implying ~7.66% move. Historical average move 5.82%.
- AZZ Inc. (AZZ) implying 10.46% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 9.54%.
Earnings After Close
- Nordson Corp. (NDSN) implying 7.99% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 9.03%.
Tuesday, May 21, 2019
Earnings Before Open
- Home Depot Inc. (HD) implying 3.30% move. Historical average move 2.71%.
- TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) implying 6.36% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 5.7%.
- Kohl’s Corporation (KSS) implying 8% move. Historical average move 8.34%.
- AutoZone Inc. (AZO) implying 5.76%. Historical average move 8.61%.
- Dycom Industries (DY) implying 15.69% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 14.25% move.
Earnings After Close
- Nordstrom Inc. (JWN) implying 8.83% move. Historical average move 8.43%.
- Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) implying 6.10% move. Historical average move 7.7%.
- Urban Outfitters (URBN) implying 9.41% move. Historical average move 8.45%.
- Pure Storage Inc. (PSTG) implying 12.84% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 11.18%.
- Sea Limited (SE) implying 14.74% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 12.3%.
Wednesday, May 22, 2019
Earnings Before Open
- Lowe’s Companies (LOW) implying 5.30% move. Historical average move 7.02%.
- Target Corp. (TGT) implying 5.59% move. Historical average move 7.34%.
- Candian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM) implying 5.01% (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 2.55%.
- VF Corp. (VFC) implying 6.41% move. Historical average move 8.22%.
- Advanced Auto Parts (AAP) implying 9.86% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 12.7%.
- Analog Devices (ADI) implying 5.04% move. Historical average move 4.41%.
Earnings After Close
- Vipshop Holdings (VIPS) implying 11.83% move. Historical average move 14.12%.
- L Brands Inc. (LB) implying 9.84% move. Historical average move 9.29%.
- NetApp (NTAP) implying 6.72% move. Historical average move 9.47%.
- Ctrip.com (CTRP) implying 8.63% move. Historical average move 10.21%.
- Synopsys Inc. (SNPS) implying 7.14% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 5.11%.
Thursday, May 23, 2019
Earnings Before Open
- Royal Bank of Canada (RY) implying 4.13% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 1.79%.
- TD Bank Group (TD) implying 3.93% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 2.38%.
- Best Buy Co. (BBY) implying 7.87% move. Historical average move 10.88%.
- Medtronic (MDT) implying 4.11% move. Historical average move 3.99%.
- Hormel Foods (HRL) implying 5.90% move. Historical average move 5.55%.
- BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ) implying 11.72% move (monthly contracts expiring in June).
Earnings After Close
- HP Inc. (HPQ) implying 5.81% move. Historical average move 6.99%.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprises (HPE) implying 6.13% move. Historical average move 4.38%.
- DXC Technology (DXC) implying 9.37% move (monthly contracts expiring in June).
- Ross Stores (ROST) implying 7.25% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 7.66%.
- Intuit Inc. (INTU) implying 5.05% move. Historical average move 4.66%.
- Autodesk Inc. (ADSK) implying 8.14% move. Historical average move 12.12%.
Friday, May 24, 2019
Earnings Before Open
- Footlocker Inc. (FL) implying 10.73% move. Historical average move 20.13%.
- Hibbett Sports (HIBB) implying 15.96% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 19.58%.
- Buckle Inc. (BKE) implying 11.53% move (monthly contracts expiring in June). Historical average move 5.54%.
Earnings After Close
- No notable earnings.
Now, don’t forget to check out Jason Bond’s latest webinar and how he’s been using one line to generate some big winners like these:
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