Stocks settled slightly lower on the week, as traders continue to digest Q2 earnings numbers.
And despite releases from Netflix ( which dropped -15.58%), Microsoft, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs…
… overall, stocks traded in a tight range, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.23%, the Dow 0.65%, and the Nasdaq falling by 1.18%.
However, I’m expecting a break from this tight range soon, as more than 600 names are reporting next week, including Tesla, Chipotle, Facebook, Starbucks, and McDonald’s.
And while earnings will dominate the headlines for the next several weeks, it won’t be the only thing on traders minds.
The Federal Reserve is still set to meet on July 30th and 31st, and while traders are expecting a rate cut, they are still unsure of the size of it (25 bps to 50bps cut are the expectations).
It’s sort of strange that we’re talking about a rate cut when stocks are near all-time highs, but this is the market we’re in… nothing we can do about it.
That said, I’m staying stock-specific, looking at bearish and bullish setups…
And while it was a slow week for some traders, I did manage to knock back some epic trades.
(One good trade can wipe a lot of losers out, this trade was alerted in real-time to Weekly Money Multiplier clients, want my next alert? Join Now)
That said, I’m really pumped about next week, with hundreds of companies reporting, and a slew of economic catalysts, I think this market breaks out of its tight range.
Read on for my breakdown on the upcoming week, including earnings, IPOs, economic catalysts, and of course, some trade ideas.
Earnings Season is Here… and it could move the market
The market has been relatively flat, as the market is still waiting on a flood of earnings report set to hit the market in the coming weeks. Traders are also watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as they’re expected to cut interest rates at the end of the month.
Right now, there is a mixed bag of earnings.
For example, we saw Netflix (NFLX) report earnings Wednesday night… and it gapped more than options traders expected (NFLX opened down over 10%, while the market was looking for a 7.4% move.)
The outlook had investors shaken up. You see, when a stock trades at 100 times its earnings… there’s no room for a growth slowdown.
Now, the market might forget about this soon… and take a stab at this as a buying opportunity. However, it could be a red flag that the U.S. economy isn’t growing as fast as many think.
Now, NFLX did move the market… however, Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings last night and gapped up slightly… which was one of the reasons holding up the market, as well as the expectations of a rate cut later this month.
Here’s a look at the tech ETF – QQQ – on the hourly chart.
Right now, the market looks like it could be topping, and starting to pull back a little… and there are some key levels to watch below. That said, if there are a slew of weak earnings in high-flying tech names… then we could see a sell off in QQQ soon… and I think there will be even more opportunities for us if that happens.
Here are some levels to watch in SPY.
The two catalysts that could spark a sell-off right now are earnings and the Fed.
If earnings actually are weaker than expected, well… look out below.
If the FOMC decides to slow down on its rate cuts for the year… then the market could experience a sharp pullback.
Either way it goes, we’ll be ready.
One Industry I’m Watching Right Now
Right now, one industry is actually looking really interesting. If the economy is actually slowing, what’s actually being affected?
You see, that means not a lot of people are buying goods… in turn, that means there isn’t a whole lot of demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx (FDX) and XPO Logistics (XPO). That said, I’m bearish on those stocks… and those are just two of the names I’m watching.
And it all traces back to the Fed.
The market is pricing in a 75.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 24.5% chance of a 0.50% rate cut.
That said, with the Fed set to meet at the end of the month, I’ll also be watching interest-related stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), like gold miners, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
Before we get into the earnings calendar, let’s see what’s on tap for economic indicators.
Monday July 22
- 8:30 AM EST Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for June
Tuesday July 23
- 7:45 AM EST ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
- 8:55 AM EST Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
- 9:00 AM EST FHFA House Price Index
- 10:00 AM EST Richmond Fed Index
- 10:00 AM EST Existing Home Sales
- 4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data
Wednesday July 24
- 7:00 AM EST MBA Mortgage Applications Data
- 9:45 AM EST Markit US Manufacturing PMI
- 9:45 AM EST Markit US Services PMI
- 9:45 AM EST Markit US Composite PMI
- 10:00 AM EST New Home Sales
- 10:30 AM EST Weekly DOE Inventory Data
Thursday July 25
- 8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims
- 8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims
- 8:30 AM EST Durable Goods Orders
- 8:30 AM EST Durable Goods: Ex Transportation
- 9:45 AM EST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
- 10:30 AM EST Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
- 11:00 AM EST Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity
Friday July 26
- 8:30 AM EST GDP Annualized
- 8:30 AM EST Personal Consumption
- 8:30 AM EST GDP Price Index
- 8:30 AM EST Core PCE
- 1:00 PM EST Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count
Now, for the earnings calendar, unless otherwise stated, the implied move is for weekly contracts expiring Friday. Implied moves with (Monthly) are for those expiring in August. Additionally, the historical average move is based on the last 16 earnings, unless stated otherwise. BMO stands for Before Market Open, and AMC stands for After Market Close.
|Expected Report Date||Company / Ticker||Implied Move||Historical Average Move|
|Monday, July 22, 2019 BMO||Halliburton Company (HAL)||5.58%||4.27%|
|Lennox International (LII)||6.07% (Monthly)||5.27%|
|PetMed Express (PETS)||17.38% (Monthly)||12.76%|
|Monday, July 22, 2019 AMC||Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)||7.20% (Monthly)||8.11%|
|Celanese Corp. (CE)||5.92% (Monthly)||4.75%|
|Crane Company (CR)||5.93% (Monthly)||6.68%|
|Logitech International (LOGI)||8.56% (Monthly)||10.28%|
|Steel Dynamics (STLD)||7.75% (Monthly)||4.95%|
|TD Ameritrade (AMTD)||3.53%||3.69%|
|Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)||6.51%||8.25%|
|Zions Bancorporation (ZION)||6.71% (Monthly)||3.94%|
|Tuesday, July 23, 2019 BMO||Allegheny Technologies (ATI)||9.08% (Monthly)||12.95%|
|AutoNation (AN)||6.96% (Monthly)||6.80%|
|Biogen Inc. (BIIB)||4.46%||6.20%|
|Hasbro Inc. (HAS)||6.58%||9.22%|
|JetBlue (JBLU)||6.92% (Monthly)||5.95%|
|Lockheed Martin (LMT)||3.03%||3.72%|
|PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)||6.80% (Monthly)||5.52%|
|Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW)||4.15%||5.87%|
|TransUnion (TRU)||6.07% (Monthly)||7.66%|
|Travelers Companies (TRV)||4.09% (Monthly)||3.38%|
|United Technologies (UTX)||3.22%||3.46%|
|Tuesday, July 23, 2019 AMC||Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)||6.47%||9.26%|
|Discover Financial (DFS)||3.49%||4.40%|
|iRobot Corp. (IRBT)||11.46%||15.45%|
|Snap Inc. (SNAP)||13.13%||21.3% (Last 8 Earnings)|
|Texas Instruments (TXN)||4.48%||4.96%|
|Visa Inc. (V)||3.11%||3.71%|
|Wednesday, July 24, 2019 BMO||Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)||6.45%||6.76%|
|Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)||4.81%||5.37%|
|General Dynamics (GD)||3.61%||4.92%|
|Hilton Worldwide (HLT)||5.30% (Monthly)||4.32%|
|Nasdaq (NDAQ)||4.44% (Monthly)||2.85%|
|United Parcel Service (UPS)||4.65%||4.73%|
|VF Corp. (VFC)||5.34%||7.53%|
|W.W. Grainger (GWW)||6.23%||8.54%|
|Wix.com (WIX)||9.57% (Monthly)||14.38%|
|Wednesday, July 24, 2019 AMC||Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)||8.55% (Monthly)||9.12%|
|Cerner Corp. (CERN)||6.31% (Monthly)||7.91%|
|F5 Networks (FFIV)||5.49%||6.95%|
|Facebook Inc. (FB)||6.60%||7.96%|
|Ford Motor Company (F)||4.47%||5.14%|
|Las Vegas Sands (LVS)||4.54%||4.92%|
|Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)||4.95%||8.16%|
|O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)||6.62% (Monthly)||6.14%|
|PayPal (PYPL)||5.42%||6.42% (Last 8 Earnings)|
|Six Flags (SIX)||7.77% (Monthly)||7.31%|
|Tesla Inc. (TSLA)||8.32%||8.47%|
|Xilinx Inc. (XLNX)||7.86%||8.56%|
|Thursday, July 25, 2019 BMO||3M Company (MMM)||4.39%||5.01%|
|Aaron’s Inc. (AAN)||9.70% (Monthly)||12.92%|
|Air Products & Chemicals (APD)||4.92% (Monthly)||4.26%|
|Allegion (ALLE)||5.16% (Monthly)||5.35%|
|Baxter International (BAX)||3.57%||4.16%|
|Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY)||4.06%||4.37%|
|First Data Corp. (FDC)||5.41% (Monthly)||8.46% (Last 8 Earnings)|
|Hershey Company (HSY)||4.61%||5.13%|
|KKR & Co. (KKR)||4.40%||5.26%|
|LendingTree (TREE)||11.56% (Monthly)||18.23%|
|Southwest Airlines (LUV)||4.77%||7.33%|
|Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)||5.44%||6.45%|
|Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)||3.86%||4.44%|
|WWE (WWE)||10.83% (Monthly)||9.17%|
|Thursday, July 25, 2019 AMC||AFLAC (AFL)||2.73%||2.87%|
|Alaska Air Group (ALK)||6.45% (Monthly)||5.63%|
|Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)||4.58%||6.04%|
|Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)||4.46%||7.65%|
|Atlassian Corp. (TEAM)||9.11%||13.20%|
|Deckers Brands (DECK)||9.30% (Monthly)||10.03%|
|Edison International (EIX)||6.40% (Monthly)||3.02%|
|Expedia Inc. (EXPE)||6.30%||9.01%|
|Intel Corp. (INTC)||5.23%||6.03%|
|MGM Resorts (MGM)||5.35%||6.91%|
|Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)||4.19%||4.68%|
|Friday, July 26, 2019 BMO||AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)||3.79%||6.20%|
|AON Plc (AON)||4.29% (Monthly)||3.09%|
|Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)||3.26%||3.75%|
|Goodyear Tire (GT)||6.48%||8.21%|
|McDonalds Corp. (MCD)||3%||3.89%|
|Phillips 66 (PSX)||3.22%||3.59%|
|Twitter Inc. (TWTR)||10.46%||15.11%|
- Castle Biosciences (CSTL) expected on 7/25, 3.33M share offering pricing range $14 – $16.
- Sunnova Energy (NOVA) expected 7/25, 17.6M share offering pricing range $16 – $18
- Health Catalyst (HCAT) expected 7/25, 6M share offering pricing range $20 – $23
- Livongo Health (LVGO) expected 7/25, 10.7M share offering pricing range $20 – $23
- ProSight Global (PROS) expected 7/25, 8.8M share offering pricing range $16 – $18
- Wanda Sports (WSG) expected 7/26, 33.3M share offering pricing range $12 – $15
Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link